This contribution addresses
and reviews current and progressing CRM supply trends and needs, potential mineral
resources targets invented, and related key value chain developments with the
EU industry in focus, by mainly looking for answers to the following questions.
- Why and how a European CRM list?
- What is the current state and what needs to be done in
the fields of CRM Economic Geology and related value chains?
- Bottlenecks that today make CRM industry perspective
and future difficult to be predicted and any foresight studies undertaken
becoming uncertain; the example of cobalt
- Which are then the risks, impacts and consequences
that might be emerged and which could be the solutions?
Current CRM
list
Critical
Raw Materials are both of high economic importance for the EU and vulnerable to supply
disruption. These limitations and conditions became the major elements of the
methodology applied to provide the 2017 criticality assessment, with the 26 raw
materials shown below, excluding lithium.
European mineral raw
material challenges
The mining sector and
the mineral processing sector are vital to securing the supply of metals
extracted in a sustainable manner to be used in high-tech value chains and to
address challenges considering that,
- The mineral value chain spans from geological exploration, mining and
processing to the recycling of metals.
- There is a strong
environmental commitment both during operation, as well as for the reclamation
of land used for mining, embedded in value chain.
- The transition to a low-carbon, fossil-free sustainable Europe and the
green economy is a prime societal challenge.
- The electric infrastructure as well as energy storage systems, renewable
energy power plants and vehicles have a tight implementation agenda.
- Fossil-free
aggregate production to build new transport infrastructure as well as new green
buildings has a central role
Strategic
mineral-based value chains for the EU
The EU, and apparently
the rest of the world, is challenging a growing
demand for mineral raw materials stemming mainly from the emerging
digital revolution, the innovation to e-mobility and artificial intelligence
technologies, and the transition towards a low-carbon and low-waste future.
This development is triggering and enabling reshaped or new value chains of mineral raw materials industries from the
upstream to the downstream, e.g. from exploration, mining, processing
and products along the value chain to end-use manufacturing. The intensity on
the economy and society, in securing the increasing resources potential and
supply needed, will continue remaining notably high, particularly in the case of critical raw materials which
by almost 60% are related to high-growth enterprising.
The six identified strategic mineral-based value chains require sustainable
supply of certain raw materials, beyond only the critical ones.
- Renewable energy –Wind & PV value chain: Al, Cu, Pb, Nd, Pr, Dy,
B, Mn, Ni, Cr, Fe, Mo, Nb, Ag, Zn, Ga, Se, Te, Cd, In, Si,
Sn
- Grids value chain: Cu, Al, Ni, Fe, Si
- Li-ion batteries (LIB) value chain*: Ni, Co, Cu, Li, Al, Mn, V, C-graphite
- Electric vehicles (EVs) value chain*: Ni, Co, Cu, Li, Al, Mn, C-graphite, Fe, Cr, Mo, V, Si,
Mg, B, Nd, Pr, Dy
- Robotics value chain: Fe, Al, Cr, Co, Mo,
Si, C-graphite, Ti, Ni, Mg, V, Cu, Pb, Ag, Sn, Sb, Bi, Au, Mn, Zn, REE, Li
- Defense value chain: Al, Cu, Pb, Nb, W, Ba,
Ga, Li, Rh, V, Be, Ge, Mg, Ta, Zn, Cd, Hf, Mn, Zr, Cr, In,
Mo, Sn, Co, Fe, Ni, Ti, Dy, Nd, Pr, Sm, Yb, Au, Pt, Ag, B,
Se
Considering the value chains and related raw materials it is found out
that,
- China delivers around half of the raw materials required for all six
strategic value chains.
- China keeps its leading position across all domains (extraction,
processing, refining) of CRM value chains.
- Europe is less dependent further down the industrial value chains.
- Europe is vulnerable to supply of RM for all mentioned value chain
technologies/sectors.
- LIB is the most vulnerable technology: strong dependency along the whole
supply chain.
- Higher resilience of Europe downstream the supply chain, for example
processed materials.
- Best case for Grids, as Europe is self-sufficient on the raw materials
needed.
- The renewable energy, Li-batteries and electric vehicles value chains are
closely related and interlinked, having a crucial role in implementing the
Paris declaration and the SDGs, as well as to address a low-carbon and green
economy future.
Electrification
and artificial intelligence
It is evident
that electrification and artificial intelligence make top priorities of EU’s
industrial strategy and related sustainable development, with respect to mainly
SDGs and climate change agenda. Raw materials and advanced materials are the
key enablers for the transition in the energy and mobility sectors. Since
electrification is the basis for the transition from brown to green economy to
happen, there will be enormous amounts of electricity needed to be produced, of
course, from renewable sources. Having all this in mind and in relation to all
outlooks showing a strongly growing demand for energy and increasing
requirements for responsible mining, two more value chains seem to be strategic
targets,
·
Renewable energy –Wind & Photovoltaics (PV) value chain, and
· Robotics value chain
The example
of cobalt
Although any kind of forecasting is uncertain all scenarios indicate that
cobalt demand for Li-battery manufacturing will exceed the supply until 2030,
given the total number of more than 110 million electric cars expected to be
produced by then. This anticipates also an exponential growth in the demand for
other battery raw materials like nickel, aluminium, copper, graphite, lithium
and manganese minerals. Under average conditions around 64.000 tonnes of
additional cobalt will be needed to cover global demand in 2030. By then
internal EU supply can meet only 15% of European demand in the electric vehicle
sector, this way leading to a growing gap between internal supply and demand. In
the case of graphite, the demand will grow from 5.700 tonnes today to 157.400
tonnes by 2030. It is obvious that
mineral raw materials availability and stable supply is strongly influencing
and determining the large-scale deployment of EVs. Of course, cobalt
availability may be available but most probably at the expense of increased
prices for battery manufacturers and continued dependence on unethical supplies
from Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). To avoid it future mobility would have
to rely on cobalt extracted within the EU by opening of new mines and
recovering it through recycling.
Economic
geology of European CRM and battery minerals
The problem
seems not to be the CRM Geology approach at EU level although this will also
need to take some time developing the Economic Geology models and achieve
credible resource potential estimates and exploitation schemes.
Securing raw
materials supply sustainability, further surveys and exploration need to be
conducted on two challenging resource potential targets indigenous to the EU.
PRIMARY RESOURCES
The main
challenges for sustainable supply of primary CRM in Europe are:
- Development of
innovative technologies addressing exploration of CRM to discover new potential
deposits on land and off shore.
- Development of
new primary CRM production in Europe will decrease import dependence and make
sure that exploitation takes place under sustainable conditions. This includes
the necessity for exploration of deep-seated deposits in brownfield areas
across the EU where potential CRM resources may occur in genetic associations
with common industrial and other high-tech metals.
- Adapting
technology, economical constraints and mind-set to allow for the exploitation
of smaller and lower-grade deposits.
- Mining
technologies adapted to the treatment of primary mineral resources with
increasing complexity and decreasing grade.
- To refine low
grade ores and materials containing CRM while reducing energy consumption and
environmental impact.
- The need to
develop methods for extracting all valuable metals from currently-mined ores
and recycled materials, including minor elements that are commonly now
rejected.
- Development of the
technologies adjusted to the properties of the processed CRMs to increase
- extraction efficiency and metal recoveries
MINERAL-BASED
WASTES
The main
challenges related to supply of secondary CRM from mineral-based wastes, e.g.
mining waste,
processing tailings, in Europe are:
- Insufficient
information about CRM compositions and volume characteristics in the mineral
resources from primary ore deposits.
- Insufficient
information about CRM compositions and volumes in mineral based wastes like for
example mining waste such as dumps and tailings.
- Insufficient
knowledge about mineralogical and geochemical behavior of CRM during mining and
processing using physical and chemical methods.
- Insufficient
information about the mineral-based character of residues, and their physical
and chemical properties.
- Insufficient information
about overall availability and resource potential of historic mining sites.
- Insufficient
information about historical smelter locations and metallurgical wastes.
- High losses of
CRM during pre-processing, impurities degrading product/residue quality.
- Lack of
systematic identification/mapping of mining waste sites for future CRM
extraction.
- Lack of a unified
system for resource classification of CRM (e.g. UNECE/UNCF system) in various types of
mining waste.
- Lack of specific
methods of extracting metals and other valuable products from secondary, often
heterogeneous sources.
- Overall lack of a
full inventory and range of metals to anticipate future demand.
Potential
challenges, opportunities, risks and barriers
- The problem seems
not to be the CRM Geology approach at EU level although this will also need to
take some time developing the Economic Geology models and achieve credible
resource potential estimates and exploitation schemes.
- Recycling and
substitution are not now reliable CRM resource providers. In a way, recycling is a
target but not a solution
- Dubious, lame,
limping and failing progress of CRM value chains, and lack of balance between
upstream-downstream efforts e.g. electric vehicles boom when energy transition
and battery mineral resources are yet not secured.
- Car-makers are keener
to increase their production and sales in EVs and forget to pay proper
attention to issues concerning the CRM supply needed.
- Increased
regulation vs Regulatory risk: Need for innovative policy instruments that are
beneficial to all parties and work constructive rather than contradictory.
- Considering the
long period of time (from exploration to mining takes about 15 years) needed
for the CRM value chains to be fully operational, the technologies addressing
the implementation plan of climate change goals might not always readily
available due to lack of the mineral resources needed.
- Determined
authorisation, decision-making and permitting procedure for a sustainable CRM EU-based
industry is necessary if stakeholders are really interested and committed to
develop and use climate-smart technologies, and to make the energy transition
happen.
- The Social
License to Operate concept or principle makes at present an old approach, needs
to be left behind and should be replaced by currently sound societal
challenges, such as the low-carbon and low-waste future.
- Ethics will
have an impact on resource and supply issues related to some raw materials,
such as Co, Nb, Ta.
- Financial uncertainties e.g rising costs, digital effectiveness,
artificial intelligence, energy.
- China will continue controlling and driving
mineral geopolitics in relation to high-tech value chains.
The way
forward
- Raw Materials from European primary and secondary
resources are ideally suitable for establishing a system of responsible
sourcing: raw materials produced in Europe can be taken as a guarantee for high
standards in social, environmental and economic terms.
- Further surveys and exploration need to be conducted
on primary and secondary resource potential targets indigenous to the EU.
- Criticality in the future also needs to include the
issue of “responsible production and consumption” according to the SDG 12 goal.
- Elements and practices related to circular economy,
responsible sourcing and resource efficiency addressed by the new EU industrial
strategy, should be particularly considered
- Major European mineral belts, such as Fennoscandian,
Iberian, Carpathian-Balkan, host highly potential exploration targets
challenging the likelihood for discovery of new resources and feasible mining
prospects.
- Europe’s opportunity to become self-sufficient and
sustainable in mineral raw materials supply from own sources and resources, is
strongly favored by its geological setting and metallogenetic evolution.
- For the EU to secure and maintain a full operational
capability and capacity of the value chains mentioned above access to land is
fundamental, making sure that responsible and innovative land stewardship
throughout the mining life cycle is considered.
- Sustainable land- use related value chains integrates
and maximises the multiple benefits related to economic, social, environmental
and cultural values.
- The value chain approach enhances the steering
capacity for the preparation and implementation of sustainable land-use plans
addressing minerals development.
- Looking for optimisation of future balances between
supply and demand.
Sources,
links and references
- https://ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/publication/eur-scientific-and-technical-research-reports/cobalt-demand-supply-balances-transition-electric-mobility
- http://iapgeoethics.blogspot.com/2019/01/circular-economy-is-about-resource.html
- https://ec.europa.eu/growth/sectors/raw-materials/specific-interest/critical_en
- Alves Dias P., Blagoeva D., Pavel C., Arvanitidis N., 2018: Cobalt: demand-supply balances in the transition to
electric mobility. JRC Science for Policy Report, European Commission.
- Blagoeva D.,
Pavel C., Alves Dias P., 2018: Critical raw materials in strategic value
chains. JRC Petten, Raw Materials Week, 2018.
